A groundbreaking advancement in weather forecasting showcases Canada’s pivotal role in shaping the future of climate science. Co-developed by Vector Institute Postdoctoral Fellow James Requeima, AI-enabled weather prediction model Aardvark Weather, promises to democratize access to accurate weather forecasting. In an era of increasing climate uncertainty, the ability to predict weather patterns quickly and accurately is crucial. Worldwide, Aardvark offers a faster, cheaper, and more accurate solution than conventional systems.

The breakthrough

Originally presented in the paper “End-to-end data-driven weather prediction,” co-authored by Anna Allen, Stratis Markou, Will Tebbutt, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Tom R. Andersson, Michael Herzog, Nicholas D. Lane, Matthew Chantry, J. Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner, and published in the journal Nature, Aardvark delivers forecasts that are not only 10 times faster than conventional systems, but require 1000 times less computing power. Traditionally the realm of large teams of experts using supercomputers, accurate weather forecasting can now be performed on a desktop computer.

Aardvark Weather uses a single machine learning model that:

• Directly processes raw observational data from multiple sources, including satellites, weather stations, ships, and planes
• Eliminates the need for intermediate numerical processing
• Produces both global and local forecasts in one step, within minutes

This end-to-end system achieves this while using just 10 per cent of the input data required by traditional systems. Yet this efficiency doesn’t compromise accuracy – Aardvark has demonstrated performance that outperforms the US national GFS forecasting system on several metrics and competes with United States Weather Service forecasts.

Why it matters

By processing raw observations from weather stations, satellites, and other sensors around the world, Aardvark can produce both global and localized forecasts with up to 10 days’ lead time and assist with rapid deployment.

The system’s versatility makes it particularly valuable for Canadian contexts, from predicting wildfires in British Columbia to anticipating flash floods in Toronto. This adaptability could transform emergency response and climate resilience strategies across our diverse geographical landscape.

Real-world applications

Aardvark’s ability to create customized AI weather forecasting models could transform how we address climate challenges across Canada, from weather events that demand immediate response to long-term climate patterns that shape policy decisions. So far, findings are paving the way with better forecasting for:

• Wildfire prevention: Rapid, localized forecasting could help British Columbia’s fire services predict high-risk conditions days in advance
• Flood management: Cities like Toronto could receive earlier warnings about potential flash floods
• Agricultural planning: Farmers could access detailed microclimate predictions for specific fields
• Renewable energy optimization: Wind farms could better predict power generation potential

This accessibility to precise, localized forecasting could particularly benefit remote and Indigenous communities, providing them with tools for better climate adaptation and emergency preparedness.

“Aardvark Weather’s end-to-end learning approach represents a paradigm shift in weather forecasting that could democratize access to accurate predictions worldwide,” says Requima. “This breakthrough has significant implications not just for meteorology, but for climate resilience in regions without access to sophisticated forecasting infrastructure.”

As Requima says, the system’s ability to operate with minimal computing resources while maintaining high accuracy makes it particularly promising for expanding access to advanced AI weather forecasting beyond traditional institutional boundaries, and has significant implications in equalizing access for developing nations.

As climate change presents new challenges, innovations like Aardvark demonstrate how Canadian AI talent is contributing to global solutions. 

Aardvark Weather is part of a broader portfolio of climate-focused AI innovations emerging from Vector, as prior collaboration with BMO and Telus led to the development of SegMate, an open-source AI toolkit using computer vision techniques to analyze satellite imagery for environmental monitoring, and Vector’s recent Global AI Alliance for Climate Action partnership with Be Node.

To learn more about this groundbreaking research, read the full study published in Nature.